A critical time of year, when team managers and sponsors are looking towards contracts for 2014 and it's this game of musical chairs that holds a huge amount of interest. On the face of it, it seems relatively simple, but scratch a little deeper and there is a whole can of worms to work out. A headache for the people responsible for the decisions, a rare treat (in recent years) for the fans.
Lets get VW out of the way first. I think it is fairly safe to say that the same 3 drivers of 2013 champion to be Sebastian Ogier, Jarri-Mati Latvala and Andreas Mikklesen are locked in for 2014. The only interesting possibility is if VW decide to make the Polo R WRC available to customers, something that at present seems unlikely.
It's the young Belgian rising star Thierry Neuville, who holds the key to the drivers market. Backed currently by fellow driver Nasser Al-Atyliah (The Qatar logos you see on the M-Sport Fiesta's), their relationship has become extremely successful this season. With such success, however, Thierry's stock has risen and it appears that Citroen are in negotiations (Remember when Loeb wrote him/M-Sport off?). The rumours are, Neuville can choose to run with M-Sport in 2014 with Qatar backing, or choose to be paid by Citroen. In fact, not so much a rumour, thanks to Nasser being so open about the negotiations. That was, until Hyundai waved a 3 year contract under his nose..
Now, that deal seems to be signed which, interesting for us, raises more questions than answers. First, it means 2014 could be a year Thierry spends developing the new Hyundai WRC car instead of challenging for outright wins, before a full-on attack in 2015. Of course, the car could be quick out of the blocks, in which case, the fight is on.
When the Hyundai deal is confirmed, we are left with the question of who goes where in M-Sport, Citroen and the remaining Hyundai seat/s. This is tasty.
The Citroen Predicament
Citroen have a big problem. Current number 1 driver Mikko Hirvonen has rarely shown the speed of past results. It is fair to say that in only two or three rallies this year (so far) he has had enough pace to challenge for the top. Meanwhile, Citroen number 2, Dani Sordo, has also had mixed fortunes. He finally took his first victory of his career in Germany. But the season had been fairly lackluster when on gravel. It would be nice if Mikko did the gravel rallies and Sordo the tarmac events, but both would like full seasons.
Enter Kris Meeke who has shown greater potential for future development and possible championships. But, he crashed 3 times in the 2 rallies. Deep down there is such a loyal following for Meeke, even from Citroen boss Yves Matton himself, but he simply cannot be a lead driver in 2014. He needs time to learn and while has does have the motivation, passion, PR speak and ultimate pace, consistency has not proven a strong point.
The plot at Citroen thickens even further. Robert Kubica. He's been very successfully campaigning in WRC2 and ERC this year, run by Citroen Sport themselves. If he does well in the WRC DS3 on Wales Rally GB, he could be a shoe-in. But wait, what's this..? Yes, it's our favourite rally reporter, Colin Clark with a tweet that sent the WRC world into a little frenzy. The word is Kubica has a good offer from M-Sport next year and is close to signing. Well, well.
Lets imagine for a moment that Neuville is at Hyundai and Kubica is at M-Sport. Citroen would have failed to keep hold of arguably the two hottest properties right now. Having ran Kubica this year and Neuville in 2012, neither could be with the team in 2014. That leaves them with Sordo and Hirvonen again, does it not? I hope there is space for Meeke in there somewhere. Mads Ostberg was in negotiations with the team at the end of 2012, perhaps that is relevant now?
Oh, also, do not discount young Sebastian Chardonnet. Daniel Elena's protege from France who wrapped up the WRC3 crown this year. A PH Sport run half campaign must be on the cards..? Maybe..? Realistically more likely to be in WRC2.
Hyundai's Test Fleet
But what of the number 2 seat at Hyundai? Currently, they have Juho Hanninen, Bryan Bouffier and Chris Atkinson as test drivers. I'd say all 3 are perfect for development and have previous experience doing just that. But to win titles? Possibly not. All 3 will no doubt be doing their best to try and get a drive with Hyundai for next year, but will they succeed? It's a maybe.
This is also a bit of a pickle at the moment. It would be really cool to see Kubica in a seat for the full year. But if that is the case, where does that leave Ostberg? Or Novikov? Or rising talent Elfyn Evans? Or, perhaps, more importantly, the Qatar backing if Neuville leaves to Hyundai?
It's widely assumed that Novikov pays for his seat, so that should hopefully continue in 2014. Has Ostberg shown enough speed to be a number one driver? I'm not sure, at times he has, but not throughout the season and could defect to Citroen. Does Kubica then have the ability to win rallies? A relative unknown. I think everyone is still pessimistic if Kimi Raikkonen is to go by. But they are poles apart (excuse the pun) so it should work out.
One thing is for certain, Malcolm Wilson has never been afraid of a punt. Expect the unexpected.
On The Edge
This is discounting drivers on the fringe too. PG Andersson is Hankook's test driver and they will be running in the top flight in some form or another next year (possibly WRC2 with a Fiesta R5?). Jari Keetoma has been up and then down, but the DMACK tyres seemed to work well in Finland and they too could possibly back a WRC car in 2014. Hayden Padden is quick, but has little funding and a now old S2000 car. However a one-off WRC drive in the upcoming Spain WRC round could make or break his career. Pontus Tidemand is favourite to win the JWRC in 2013 and has great PR skills, but it's believed he will be running in WRC2 next season.
So, it's up in the air then?
Yup, it certainly seems that way! Pretty much everything mentioned in this blog is rumours with a bit of calculated guessing. Please bear that in mind.Either way, it's an exciting time for fans and a very nervous time for drivers! Brilliant!
